CBP data reveals only 6.5% of affected importers are ready to receive tariff refunds, with 7,700 requests already rejected as the agency struggles with a $166 billion backlog.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection has admitted it cannot process tariff refunds for the vast majority of importers owed money from illegal IEEPA duties, with new data revealing that only 21,423 of 330,566 affected importers—just 6.5%—have completed the electronic setup required to receive payments from the $166 billion refund pool.
The admission came in a March 2026 CBP affidavit filed with the Court of International Trade, where Brandon Lord, CBP's Executive Assistant Commissioner, detailed the agency's struggles to comply with federal court orders mandating immediate refunds following the Supreme Court's February ruling that IEEPA tariffs were illegal.
CBP's own data reveals the scale of the crisis:
The rejection rate is particularly troubling. CBP has already been unable to process 7,700 refund requests in less than two months, affecting nearly 2,900 importers who thought they were ready to receive payments.
The core problem lies in CBP's electronic-only refund policy. To receive refunds, importers must have their ACE Portal accounts properly configured for electronic payments—a technical requirement that the majority of affected businesses haven't completed.
"CBP cannot process refunds manually due to the sheer volume," Lord stated in the affidavit. "Manual processing would require approximately 4.4 million labor hours."
This electronic bottleneck disproportionately affects smaller importers who may lack the technical resources or knowledge to navigate CBP's portal requirements. Many discovered their accounts weren't properly configured only when their refund requests were rejected.
Recognizing that its current systems cannot handle the refund volume, CBP is developing a new platform called CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries). The agency promises CAPE will be operational within 45 days, but importers remain skeptical given the mounting rejection rate.
The 45-day timeline assumes perfect execution—no delays, no technical glitches, and no additional compliance hurdles. Meanwhile, importers continue to face cash flow pressures from duties they shouldn't have paid in the first place.
The 7,700 rejections since February 6 offer insight into what's going wrong:
Each rejection requires importers to troubleshoot their setup and resubmit requests, adding weeks to an already delayed process. Some importers report multiple rejections for the same refund request.
As CBP struggles with refunds, a secondary market has developed. Some importers, unable to wait for the bureaucratic process to resolve, are exploring options to monetize their refund claims through third-party financing or factoring arrangements.
These alternatives typically come at a discount—importers receive immediate payment but forfeit a percentage of their total refund amount. For businesses facing cash flow pressures, it's becoming an increasingly attractive option despite the cost.
The mounting rejection rate suggests that even importers who believe they're properly configured may face unexpected hurdles. Technical requirements continue to evolve, and CBP's guidance hasn't kept pace with the complexity of the refund process.
Importers attempting to navigate the process independently face:
The refund crisis exposes fundamental limitations in CBP's technology infrastructure. The agency collected $166 billion in duties using systems that weren't designed to give that money back efficiently.
"The current ACE system was not designed to handle refund processing at this scale," industry experts note. The 6.5% compliance rate isn't just about importer unpreparedness—it reflects a systemic mismatch between CBP's collection capabilities and refund infrastructure.
If you're among the 94% of importers not yet ready for electronic refunds:
Audit your ACE Portal account immediately. Don't wait for CBP's new system—fix configuration issues now.
Document everything. Keep records of all refund requests, rejections, and correspondence with CBP.
Consider professional assistance. The rejection rate suggests DIY approaches are increasingly risky.
Evaluate cash flow needs. If you can't wait 45+ days for CAPE, explore alternative financing options.
With 7,700 rejections already processed and climbing, the window for smooth refund processing is narrowing. CBP's 45-day promise for CAPE assumes current systems can handle the backlog, but the rejection rate suggests otherwise.
Importers face a choice: prepare now with existing systems despite their limitations, or wait for CAPE and risk being caught in an even larger bottleneck when it launches.
The $166 billion question remains: Can CBP deliver on its refund promises, or will the majority of importers face months more delays while their money sits in government accounts earning them nothing?
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